Changes in extreme integrated water vapor transport on the U.S. west coast in NA-CORDEX, and relationship to mountain and inland precipitation

Western U.S. (WUS) rainfall and snowpack vary greatly on interannual decadal timescales. This combined with their importance to water resources makes future projections of these variables highly societally relevant. Previous studies have shown that precipitation events in the WUS are influenced by timing, positioning, duration extreme integrated vapor transport (IVT) (e.g., atmospheric rivers) along coast. We investigate end-of-21st-century IVT a collection regional climate models (RCMs) from North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). Several NA-CORDEX RCMs project decrease cool season at high elevation across Sierra Nevada) corresponding increase Great Basin explore larger-scale controls this terrain-related change subset through an examination IVT-events. Projected changes frequency IVT-events depend event’s extremity: end century whereas moderate frequency. Furthermore, future, total generally increases during IVT-events, decreases higher elevations. Thus, we argue mean elevations largely determined which projected be less frequent bring high-elevation precipitation.